Gut Instincts and a Breakdown of the Cup Final

In sports, a popular saying is to never second guess one's instincts.

Indeed, never second guess your guesses, or rather predictions. Alas, I have done so. The New Jersey Devils to my amazement were no match for the overpowering Carolina Hurricanes, the team I predicted to win it all. I turned my back on my pick, and am now suffering the consequences. My postseason prediction record falls to a lowly 7-7 ( I chose the Ducks- and yes- the Hurricanes to go to the finals, but as I wrote earlier not to beat New Jersey in round 2). If it's any reconciliation the entire cast of TSN Analysts are either tied or below my mark of 500. : Bob Mckenzie, 7-7; Pierre (talks too much) McGuire, 6-8; Bill Berg, 5-9. Aah, but lets not forget Maggie the Macaque that famous chimp with an astonishing 9-5 record, who by the spin of a wheel is able to choose the winners better than an entire team of paid analysts who sit at home every night breaking down every aspect of the game- and of course me, an aspiring sports journalist.

A consolation from my error will be- of course- that the Canes come out of the series as gods hoisting the holy grail of hockey, and I can take comfort in my initial impulse of picking them to do it. And so- like Allan Muir of Sports Illustrated*- I will tell you again, why the Carolina Hurricanes will win the 2006 Stanley Cup:

Goaltending:

Carolina's goaltending has been superb throughout the playoffs, so it begs the question why has there been multiple starts and multiple pulls by both of Carolina's goaltenders, and how has this been so effective for Peter Laviolette and the Canes? Well simply put, both Cam Ward and Martin Gerber are excellent goaltenders who love a challenge and who don't get overly worked up after poor performances. Both Ward and Gerber have stepped it up when the other has been off his game, and helped the team to win. This has proven to be the X-Factor for the Canes' and will likely be a recurring theme if Ward stumbles in his first ever Stanley Cup Finals.

On the other end, what can't we say about the brilliance of Dwayne Roloson. The veteran goaltender has overcome so much opposition in his long and not always successful career. Battling for back up roles, and jumping up and down from the AHL to the bigs, this guy has earned his metal to play for a ring. But what happens if things go bad for the veteran, who do the Oilers turn to then? Ty Conklin...? I mean it's not as if Kevin Lowe acquired both parts of the superb goaltending tandem of Roloson and Manny Fernandez at the trade deadline.

Edge: Canes

Defencemen:

The Canes rotate through 3 pairs of defensemen fairly evenly with the vets Bret Hedican, Glen Wesley, and Frantisek Kaberle logging a few more minutes then the rest. While the Canes' blueline has rarely struggled and have done an excellent job containing the oppositions star forwards, they are going to be tested every shift from the Oilers who are very deep up front. But remember the "D" have already had success against a similar forward group from Buffalo, who were too much to handle for Heavyweights Philadelphia and Ottawa who had defensive stallwarts like Zdeno Chara and Derian Hatcher.

The Oilers look pretty similar on the blueline from other years except for one huge exception- Chris Pronger. The acquisition of Pronger over the offseason has paid dividends for Kevin Lowe and the organization and Pronger's dominance could ultimately shift the tide in this series. He's a veteran who works hard every shift and pounds the opposition constantly. He will play heavy minutes in the finals as he's done all postseason (averaging over 30mins a game), and will be relied on to shut down the dynamic Eric Staal.

Edge: Oilers

Forwards:

While both teams possess a strong group of veterans: Mike Peca, Ryan Smith, and Ethan Moreau for the Oilers versus Rod Brind'Amour, Doug Weight, and Cory Stillman for the Canes, it will be interesting to see which group of youngsters show up when it matters. While the depth certainly goes to the Oilers who have plenty of speedy forewards in Ales Hemsky, Fernando Pisani, and Shawn Horcoff it's the Canes who have the advantage in skill with 100 point getter/ post season point leader Eric Staal, consistent Justin Williams, and feisty Andrew Ladd. The makeup of both teams up front is very similar with the Oilers having a slight advantage of overall depth and the Canes' edging in overall skill.

Edge: Even

Special Teams:

The special teams will play a huge role for both clubs. Where the best power play unit of the Canes (26%) will test the best penalty kill in the Oilers (89%). If the Canes are kept off the board with the man advantage it will be because of the dominance of Pronger and Peca who run the show on the PK. The Canes will need to tire Pronger out and pass the puck around on the man advantage so even if they don't open up an oppurtunity to score, they'll at least give Staal more oppurtunity to break down the pairing of Pronger and 33 year old Jason Smith in latter stages of the game. It'll be the Oilers on the other hand who can take advantage if they stay out of the box where the Canes rely heavily on their power play to get key goals (think Brind'Amour's PP game winner in game 7).

Coaching:

Craig McTavish is the kind of coach you have to admire. He's got a level head, and is a really really good speaker especially with the media. If their was ever a " Nicest Coach in the League " award McTavish would win hands down. Laviolette on the other hand really showed some gall bringing up that champagne bottle to the press conference after Carolina's win on Friday, turning what seeminly was a cheap shot at Lindsey Ruff's comments about him after game 6 into a heart warming story. While the media loved it, I thought it was cheap and ugly. Really- the way he was stuttering, it almost seemed as if he'd made the whole thing up on the spot. With all that said, he's still a hockey player and all of us hockey players have made our fair amount of cheap shots now and again, whether it's on the ice or after the game. Laviolette's comments are exactly what the media eat up anyway.

Both coaches have made key moves to get their teams to where they are, and they have to be commended for that, but while Laviolette's team was expected to be in the Conference Finals, and perhaps where they are now- the finals, the Oilers have been a heavy underdog since narrowly beating out (shedding a tear as I say it) the Canucks by one point for a date with the Detroit Red Wings in the first round.

Edge: McTavish

X-Factor: The Captains. Who else are you going to look for under pressure but the man with the "C" on his chest. Jason Smith has been a gritty, shot-blocking fiend this post season and a veteran stay-at-home blueliner his whole career. While his play in the post-season and presence in the dressing room clearly embodies the style of game the Oilers have been playing all through the post-season, one cannot refute the fact that Rod Brind'Amour has been the undisputed MVP in this year's playoffs. Time and time again he has carried his team on his back and rode them to a win. Against the Canadiens he scored a big turn around goal in the second in Game 3 when they were down 2 games to none against the Habs, only to dominate the next 4 and win in 6, and then in the second round out working and out thinking the playoff savvy New Jersey Devils. And well on Friday, his winning goal against the Sabres showed why he's finally destined to win the cup this year. Shear smarts and perserverance is what the Captain brings to the team every night, and when he's on the ice their is nobody even close to as dominant.

Edge: Canes

Prediction: Canes in 6

* Allan Muir in his article " Mirror, Mirror: The seven key factors in an evenly matched Cup Final ", leaned toward the Carolina Hurricanes to win the Stanley Cup against the Edmonton Oilers.