Playoff Predictions

Good news, The Post Season is underway and Bettman has made it clear that if his Referees aren't willing to call the game tight they'll be watching the rest of the games on their t.v. sets.
So without anymore further ado here's how the playoffs are going to work out...poolies, betters, fanatics, heretics mark my word my predictions will prevail. Why you ask? Read on...


Eastern Conference:

(1) Ottawa Senators vs. (8) Tampa Bay Lightning

Sens in 6......Why?

Both teams have limped into the post season, the Senators losing 7 of their last 10 and the Lightning losing their last 4 of 5. The mismatch will be on defense where the Senators have a strong group of Redden, Chara, Pothier, Mezjaros, and Christoph Shubert and will see Chris Phillips back late in the first or early in the second round. The Lightning have struggled all season in their defensive zone and it starts in Goal where neither John Grahame nor Sean Burke have looked like starters. If Ray Emery can keep up his stellar play until Dominik Hasek comes back from a nagging groin injury this series could be even shorter.

(2) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (7) Montreal Canadians

Hurricanes in 5...Why?

The Carolina Hurricanes won the season series 4-0 and outscored the Canadians by a whopping 25-9 margin. Playoff veterans Doug Weight, Rod Brind Amour, and Mark Recchi alongside the younger Justin Williams and Erik Staal should provide more than enough offense to control the games early. If Montreal can grind it into a 6 or 7 seven game series they may have a chance to pull off the upset, but they are way over there heads in the talent department. Gainey is actually debating whether or not to start Aebischer over Huet. This should be a no brainer he needs to put Huet in goal. There should be no decision making here. If he's looking at Aebischer's playoff experience he's overlooking the fact that Aebischer has yet to get his team into the second round. Not only that but at the trade deadline he had enough confidence in Huet to trade away the beloved Theodore. Where's the love now? Because every team in the east sans New Jersey and Tampa have inexperience between the pipes, Gainey needs to play the hotter hand. Hey, I wonder if Michael Ryder will make an appearance on the score sheet?

(3) New Jersey Devils vs. New York Rangers (6)

New Jersey in 6....Why?

No other team in the Eastern Conference is coming into the playoffs withm more confidence than the Devils after finishing the season on an 11 game win streak. Thanks in part to Martin Brodeur who has looked like his old-self since his iffy play at the Olympics. The Devils are on a tear and the play of Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez, and Patrik Elias of late scares everyone in the Conference right now. The Rangers' fate will rely on Henrik Lundqvist. If he can continue to play as well as he has been the Rangers have a decent shot at taking it to seven. Up front other Ranger forewards need to step up alongside Jagr. Look for Martin Straka and Petr Prucha to snap out of their funks.

(4) Buffalo Sabres vs. (5) Philadelphia Flyers

Sabres in 7......Why?

This will be the most exciting series in the first round if and only iff Peter Forsberg plays at least 80% of the games. The Flyers have been dogged by injuries all season but the stellar play of their rookies Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Freddy Meyer, and R.J. Umberger have kept them competitive. This series will be decided by the third and fourth lines, where Buffalo has the edge. No team in the league is more balanced up front and this is why the Sabres will be going to the second round.

Western Conference

(1) Detroit Red Wings vs. (8) Edmonton Oilers

Detroit in 5.....Why?

I saw Detroit in their 3-2 win over Dallas last week, and one thing impressed me the most was their passing. The Wings are the best passing team in the league by a long shot. They made an average 3 to 4 passes from their own end to Dallas' end. I would say a league average would be between 1 to 2 per possession. This is why Detroit was so dominant during the regular season. Their skill along with the obstruction crackdown has allowed them to play on a zenith level that is incomparable in the league. The Oilers will win one game with pure grit alone. Aah, wouldn't it be nice to see the Mike Peca of old for at least one shift?

(2) Dallas Stars vs. (7) Colorado Avalanche

Dallas in 6...Why?

Somebody told me that if Theodore played like he did when he won the Hart with Montreal Colorado would win. And agreed they would. But Theodore won't for plenty of reasons...I'll give you two: 1) he's shown no signs of his old form since coming back from the injury to at least foreshadow a coming out party in the playoffs and 2) he's not in the right frame of mind. Like a tough breakup, the effects of his ex (Montreal) breaking his heart has not strayed far from his mind.

(3) Calgary Flames vs. (6) Anaheim Mighty Ducks

Flames in 7......Why?

The Flames will turn into that nasty hit-everything-in-sight-defensive-machine that we're used to Darryl Sutter's club performing in the playoffs. But this time around it won't be as effective. The Flames got away with winning their division because of the new scheduling. They can grind it out during the regular season with teams like Colorado, Edmonton, and Vancouver who are weak defesively and who's goaltending is amateur in comparison, but when faced with a foe in Anaheim who reaks of speed, skill, and J.S. Giguere the Flames will have finally met their match. The X-factor: Heart, and that's where the Flames will still triumph.

(4) Nashville Predators vs. (5) San Jose Sharks

Sharks in 6....Why?

If you would have told me this was a first round matchup a month ago I would have said Nashville in four. But a lot has changed since then. The Sharks have turned into the hottest team in the west boasting the best one-two punch in Joe Thornton and Jonathon Cheechoo, and the Predators have lost their glue: Thomas Vokoun. Yes Steve Sullivan and Paul Kariya will play like men on a mission but untested Chris Mason will let in some stinkers and kill the tirade. I foresee a few nasty 10 goal shootouts with Thornton/Cheechoo signatures.

Season Ending Remarks

So the Canucks end their dismal season on a positive note. Even playoff teams not holding Lord Stanley get rewarded with such a finish. If we can take anything positive out of the way the Canucks let their playoff contentions slip through their fingers, it's the way they stopped the bleeding before summer vacation. All three of the Canucks Power Line, no not Henrik and Daniel, but Todd, Markus, and Brenden were able to score last night in their overtime win against the Colorado Avalanche to provide some hope in golf link conversation.

What was glaringly horrible was that the big line was dormant for much of the 2005-06 season. Ok, so Markus and Bert had respectable point campaigns: 79 and 71, but they were lacking heart and desire, even a pulse most games. Let's not forget their intolerable defense: Naslund was a -19, while Bert was -17. Morrison came to play most evenings but no disrespect, he's been overachieving in the points department for the last few years, I mean who wouldn't be able to collect 40-50 assists on a Bertuzzi/Naslund line in their prime ? There were long stretches of injuries, and having to look to Alex Auld to take the brunt of the goaltending load after the recent Dan Cloutier injury was a big blow, although to Auld's credit he was doing a fine job until after the Olympic break. The Defense were very depleted too; Jovanovski, then Salo and Ohlund during the Olympics. But every team has their injury problems during the course of a campaign. Look at Philadelphia, and the now the Ottawa Senators. Good teams find a way to win within such circumstances. The Canucks just weren't that sort of team this year. And a lot of questions have to be asked regarding their so called leaders Bertuzzi and Naslund, and perhaps more importantly between the pipes where Auld didn't look starting worthy, and the injury plagued Cloutier can't be relied upon during the playoffs. Nonis should be seriously making a list of who should stay and who he's willing to depart with, because their isn't a lot of room salary-wise. For instance, Jovanovski may not be returning because the Canucks are probably not going to be able to afford a new contract extension. As long as Ohlund, Salo, and Allen are still in the mix the team should do well. But, looking for a goaltender, and 3rd and 4th line wingers is implorable for Nonis in the next few months. If the Canucks are looking to improve next year their current roster has to be shaken up, and weaknesses need to be addressed. A changing of the Coaching guard might be another move in the right direction. Marc Crawford looks too complacent on the bench. He isn't good at rallying the troops, and a respect issue might be in question. I mean how come Betruzzi gets pampered so much. This guy should have had his best season considering he had a lot to prove since his one year suspension. Crawford had a great year or two Winning the Cup in Colorado but coaching a team with Forsberg, Sakic, Blake, and Roy shouldn't require a lot of coaching zeal. Since coming to Vancouver Crawford has done a fine job, but I think it's time to let him go.

Canucks Cool Off Flaming Calgary!

Anson Carter's hit on Calgary's hit on Bryan Marchment was awesome! The Canucks need to continue to play agressively, and build on last night's solid performance. The back-to-back showdown versus San Jose this week will determine who gets to play Detroit in the first round. Should be a goal-slingin' fest of bolstering offensive clubs. The Canucks offense looks so much better with Ed Jovanovski in the lineup (his game winning goal probably saved the season). Like Mattias Ohlund he has a great eye for outlet passes and he's perfect for joining an odd-man rush. Surprisingly, he looked nowhere out of place and his conditioning was superb. Let's hope he can focus on improving his "D" (suspect -5 on the year), he's been caught flat footed too many times in his own zone this season.

Great game, and a much needed win. This is exactly where the Canucks have to be: behind the drivers seat. Their fate lies in their own sticks, let's see what they got!

End of the Season Hardware

As the end of the regular season if coming to an end and the Canucks are 2 points and one game behind a playoff spot things are heating up. Before focusing on the post season and all it's excitement (I'm interested to see how the refs will call it, will things be let go, as the hockey moniker 'no penalties are called in the playoffs' indicates?)

My picks for the end of the season hardware goes as follows:

Hart Trophy (MVP):

This is a very tight race between Jaromir Jagr and Mikka Kiprusoff. Head-to-Head statistics are hard to judge because of the variance in each position. Looking at how important they are to each others teams here's my analysis:

Jagr is the first, second, and third option of scoring on the Rangers. Nobody else up front does the amount of damage that Jagr can do by himself, and anyone who does score is a mere benefactor of a Jagr play. He is involved in 1/2 of the teams goals (115 points, on NYR's 237 goals), and is one goal away from stealing Adam Graves' team record of most goals in a season with 53. Jagr hasn't been the 0nly X-factor for the Rangers who are making the playoffs for the first time in years. The stellar play of Henrik Lundquist has overshadowed a lot of Jagr's success. Jagr is the team glue, he makes everything happen up front and is the most dangerous weapon the Rangers have. At the end of the season barring he wins the points race against Joe Thornton he will have tied Mario Lemieux with six scoring titles. Impressive.

Three years ago the name Mikka Kiprusoff would have sounded unfamiliar to the ears of the average hockey enthusiast. A number of San Jose Sharks fans might have looked at a roster sheet to identify Kiprusoff as the second string goaltender behind Evgeni Nabokov. Now Kiprusoff is a name that annoys opponents at the sound of the third period buzzer. A name associated with a league leading 8 shutouts and a Calgary Flames record in Goaltender Wins. 'Kipper' has been so dominant this year, and interestingly still unidentifiable to most, who just assume that the Flames are atop the standings in the Central Division because of their Team Tenacity. Yet, barring the Flames success this season the offense has remained to be seen. Leading goal scorer Jarome Iginla is having a subpar season with 33 goals and 62 points, and their third leading scorer is a rookie defensemen (Dion Phaneuf). Calgary is fifth worst in the league for goals for, and without Kiprusoff backstopping the Flames to a league low 188 goals Calgary would be lucky to even make the playoffs.

Winner:

Choosing the Hart Trophy is always the most subjective, as their is really not a clear statistical analysis involved in deciding a winner. Winners are usually regarded as the best player on a good team that wouldn't be a good team without this player. The disparity between the best player on a good team versus the second best player on a good team usually decides it. In this case the gap between Mikka Kiprusoff's play and the second best player on the team (which I cannot decide between Iginla and Phaneuf but I'll give to the feisty Captain) Iginla, is much wider than Jagr and Lundqvist. The Flames are in many ways the best team in the West right now, and the Rangers although they look good are shadowed by teams like Philadelphia, Ottawa, and New Jersey who have depth and a lot more playoff experience. Kiprusoff, A goaltender like Hasek in the 90's that can win games by himself, has truly earned his valor for league MVP.


James (Chuck) Norris Trophy (Defensemen):

Winner:

The official description for the Norris trophy is " Outstanding All-Around Defensemen ", and based on this title Niklas Lidstrom wins hands down. There has been no other defensemen in the last 10 years that has delivered such consistency on the blueline. This guy never makes a mistake. The epitome of an all around defensemen. He reminds me of a Paul Coffey but with better d-zone coverage.

Considerable Candidates:

Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim - The Ducks wouldn't be going to the post-season without this guy; Sergei Zubov, Dallas - Outstanding season for the veteran blueliner. Again maintains the defensive zone consistency with Bobby Orr-like playmaking abilities that Lidstrom possesses. Andrej Mezjoras - A huge surprise pick of course, especially considering that this guy is a rookie and has no chance at winning the Calder. But look at the season he's having: A league best + 36, along with 37 points while averaging only 17.5 minutes a game. Lately he's been getting even more minutes than Wade Redden on the Senators blueline, impressive.

Calder Trophy (Rookie):

Winner:

Alexander Ovechkin, Washington - He secured it for me after that inhumanly insane
diving goal against Phoenix. Ovechkin at 20, could be the best hockey player in the world. His speed is almost at a Pavel Buresque level, and his puck handling abilities and offensive zone creativity mimic Sergei Federov, not to mention his gritty Forsberg-like style. Ovechkin the "Uber-Mensch " ! Aren't they having a fan contest to decide what his nickname should be?

Considerable Contenders:

Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh - The teen-phenom played up to lofty expectations this year. Nothing seems to phase this kid which impresses me the most. He has the skills to be one of the greats, but his only kryptonite might be his temper. He's already lost a lot of respect from some players and the referees. Let's hope it's just teen angst. Remember Crosby: the 'Great One' didn't win this piece of hardware either.

Henrik Lundqvist - Won the starting position in New York and has one of the best Save Percentages in the league.

Dion Phaneuf, Calgary - Logging time on the Calgary blueline like a Vet. If he keeps it up he'll have a Scott Stevens-like career.

Andrej Mezjaros, Ottawa - See above!


Frank J. Selke Trophy (2 way forward):

Winner:

Jere Lehtinen, Dallas - Has stepped up his offensive numbers considerably this year. Like Lidstrom this guy is the epitome of a two-way hockey player. A rarity in a game where scoring thrives on the absence of backcheckers. A concept so simple, yet so often overlooked by coaches.
Considerable Considerations:

Kris Draper Detroit - Looks impressive as a Red Wing, looked terrible as a Team Canada Olympian.

John Madden, New Jersey - Has had to focus a little more in the defensive end with the absence of Stevens and Neidermayer.


Lady Byng Trophy (most sportsmanslike):

The Lady Byng is given to the "All-star" player with the least amount of penalty minutes. Since history proves it to be the case, the trophy should be awarded to a League "top 30" point getter with the least amount of penalty minutes.

Woudn't this make sense considering it was Gretzky's gimme trophy ?

Winner:

Pavel Datsyuk beats out Patrick Marleau with his 22 pmins, 1 penalty under Marleau's 24.

I wonder if he'll be a no show at the Award Ceremonies like Mogilny who felt insulted after winning such a trivial award. I wouldn't blame him for skipping out, but the catering must be amazing at those events, + the open bar! All the Vodka a Russian can drink!


Vezina Trophy (Goalie):

Toughest one to give out this year after every tenders' numbers went up in the "new" NHL (i hate when people call it 'new', a few rule changes does not signify a whole NHL makeover, it's merely spring cleaning done to an otherwise messy league).

Winner:

Mikka Kiprusoff, Calgary - He's posting an outstanding 920. save percentage along with a league leading 8 shutouts and second to Marty Turco with 38 wins. + Calgary's ultimate X-factor in the playoffs.

Considerable Considerations:

Thomas Vokoun, Nashville - My brother's pick, would have convinced me but his numbers have been sliding since his marginal play in the Olympics.

Hendrick Lundqvist - Any other year he would have had a chance to pull of both Calder and Vezina....hey does anybody remember a guy by the name of Jim Carey?

Roberto Luongo - My favorite tender. He has a 915. save percentage after watching 2, 347 rubbers, and counting, rocket in his direction. I really really wish Nonis pulled that Bertuzzi, Jovanoski trade for him ( i think i've mentioned that in my blog at least twice already). Would have looked good now eh Crawford?


Jack Adams Trophy (Coach):

Winner:

Lindy Ruff- Buffalo. He's done everything he can to take a team, projected to be one of the worst this year, into the playoffs. I agree with him about what happened the other night against Toronto. Darcy Tucker was going for head shot in his knee on knee with Jochen Hecht. Regardless of the fact that the his intent was unssuccessful, his intent to injure with the knee on knee prevailed and the Sabres are now without one of their best snipers going into the playoffs. The NHL does not punish for intent to injure, or even the severity of the infraction of the offender , rather it focuses solely on the outcome of the victim. Think about if Donald Brashear and Steve Moore hadn't sustained such ill-effects affects after their altercations. It would have been just another day in the life of a 'tough' NHL.

Cosiderable Contenders:

Mike Babcock, Detroit Red Wings. Coaching his team to a league best record 52-15-8. The Red Wings are consistently excellent, year in year out.

Randy Carlyle, Anaheim Ducks. Somehow found a way to ignite the old Teemu Selanne and pushed Andy Mcdonald to playing like an All-Star. The rookies have stepped up their play of late as well. Ryan Getzlaf since coming up from the AHL, and Chris Kunitz are now just hitting their stride. Hey, where's Corey Perry?

Tom Renney, New York Rangers. Again finding a way for his team to win without huge depth on foreward and defense. I looked at their roster last night and this is who I found on forward:

Marcel Hossa, Blair Betts, Colton Orr, Petr Sykora ( the good one), Jason Ward, and Dominic Moore, and Jed Ortmeyer. Besides the aging Ward and the underachieving Sykora the rest of the 3rd and 4th lines are comprised of 1st or second year players. New York, not forgetting the stellar rook Petr Prucha, might have the best young group of guys up front right now.

The Playoff Push

Ok, so looking at the way things are shaping up with the playoff race, the Canucks have but one option along with San Jose, Edmonton, LA, Anaheim, and Colorado: win as many games as you can and hope that the others fall. As if this isn't obvious enough, the interesting thing about the Canucks Schedule compartively is that they play 6 of their last 7 games against said aftormentioned clubs (San Jose + Anaheim twice, and Colorado + Edmonton once). Out of these playoff battlers the Nucks play the most head-to-head.

Thus, I can only look at the Canucks' playoff fate one way:

The playoff-like intensity for these last 7 games will only help a team like the Canucks that need to be pushed to the brink of elimination before responding (think last year's first round against Calgary). The Canucks handle pressure fairly well, and it's this pressure that's needed if they want to come out fiery in their first round against a better opponent (Detroit, Dallas, or God forbid Calgary.) If some Canucks fans seem dismayed about the bad fortune of their remaining schedule, I argue it would bring little cheer for a fan, like myself, to see an easy finish for a team that has done nothing since Christmas. Think about the affect that last year's 6 game regular season win streak had on them, they felt invincible going into the playoffs even against a very tough foe in Calgary. The Canucks are an overrated, overachieving team and need to be humbled by less talented teams like Edmonton that fight every minute in a hockey game. If the Canucks learn that only the hardest working clubs will have a chance to hoist the holy grail of hockey, they might have a George Mason-like run in the playoffs.

Vancouver: The Goalie Graveyard

Vancouver Canucks Goalies Since ‘Captain’ Kirk Mclean left in 97-98 in no particular order….

Arturs Irbe, Johan Hedberg, Corey Hirsch, Felix Potvin, Maxime Ouellet, Alex Auld, Dan Cloutier, Kevin Weekes, Peter Skudra, Martin Brochu, Garth Snow, Corey Schwab, Alfie Michaud (1.5 games), Rob Micaver (25 mins), Mika Noronen (1 game) and Bob Essensa.

With a total of 13 different goalies (not including Michaud, and Noronen+Micaver this year) that have started at least 3 games with the Vancouver Canucks since Mclean’s departure, the team has averaged 2 new sets of pads each season. If Nonis has anything to think about during the offseason it might be this statistic and this statistic alone. Finding a market reliable goaltender ie. ( the Brodeurs or Luongos of the league ) could be something to look into. Unloading a Todd Bertuzzi or a an Ed Jovanoski might do the trick.

Tell me what you think Dave!